commodity futures spread watchlist september 2016 zmv16 zmf17 clx16 clh17 hev16 hez16 zlh16 zlh16

Commodity Spreads Watchlist: September 2016

Date of analysis: August 31, 2016
Another month was testing my patience. At the end of August I entered into Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil (see spread below) and Crude Oil (see below). Unfortunately, I missed Gas Oil and Feeder Cattle potential trades which would made nice profit.

List of seasonal futures spreads I consider to trade in September.

 

Spreads removed from August watchlist

  • GOX16- GOH17: this would be nice profitable trade, but I missed it.
  • GFU16- GFV16:  another profitable trade which I missed. Entry signal on August 1.

 

Buy Soybean Oil: ZLH17 – ZLZ16

long March 2017 Soybean Oil and short December 2016 Soybean Oil

This spread is in my watch list since July where I mentioned that seasonality started trending in the middle of May and based on the historical patterns will finish in the middle of October. There are two corrections mid July and end of August. Now is the second correction and time to enter. Re-optimized trading dates are: August 31 – October 11.

(click on image to enlarge in new window)watchlist commodity seasonal spread trade soybean oil zlh17 zlz16

 

Buy Lean Hogs: HEV16 – HEZ16

long October 2016 Lean Hogs and short December 2016 Lean Hogs

1 day to optimized entry. I am cautious with this spread because there is no good correlation between spread and 5y, 10y, 15y, 20y seasonal patterns. But in last 15 years there were 93% winning trades.

(click on image to enlarge in new window)watchlist commodity seasonal spread trade lean hogs hev16 hez16

Buy Crude Oil: CLX16 – CLH17

long November 2016 Crude Oil and short March 2017 Crude Oil

August 31 I entered in long position. The trading window is quite short (14 days). Price bounced back from support (triple bottom) and 1-2-3 pattern occured (better shown in TWS than Season Algo). Seasonal statistics and back test passed my analysis with satisfying result.

(click on image to enlarge in new window)watchlist commodity seasonal spread trade crude oil clx16 clh17

Please read the disclaimer.

 

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