Commodity Trading Ideas: March 2017

Date of analysis: March 11, 2017

Every two or three weeks I search for commodity spreads with high probability of potential profit. First I apply filter with around 20 criteria on thousands of combinations of trading setups. And then I do detail analysis on every filtered spread. The goal of detail analysis is to filter out less stable spreads and keep the best ones. Usually I find two or three favorite candidates and some less preferred.

In this post I am going to publish high probability trading setups as the result of my analysis which I consider to trade in March.

performance cumulative returns performance commodity futures spread trading february 2017

Performance: February 2017

Monthly P/L:                                                     6%

Commissions:                                                 -0.2 %

Monthly P/L inc. commissions:              5.8 %

YTD P/L inc. commissions:                       5.8%

Since inception inc. commissions:    23.7%


Overall performance statistics.

Trading Activity: January & February

Opened positions

LEQ17 – LEM17 (Live Cattle): entered with three contracts at the beginning of January. January 17th the first PT reached and two contracts were closed.

ZWH17 – ZWZ17 (Wheat): January 26th and February 3rd bought two contracts when price broke resistance and 1-2-3 pattern occured. January 17th closed one contract.

Watch list update

Yesterday I made re-analysis of February’s watch list. I am already trading Wheat and Live Cattle but it seems that in Soybean Meal seasonality started and 1-2-3 pattern is forming. Originally I considered ZMN17-ZMZ17 but ZMK17-ZMZ17 has better results in my re-analysis.

crude oil trade result seasonal futures commodity spreads clg17 clf17

November Trade Summary: Crude Oil with Small Profit

Buy CLG17 – CLF17: long February 2017 Crude Oil and short January 2017 Crude Oil.

October 24: bought 1 ct when price broke the resistance at 0.6. I could enter when price broke the resistance at 0.5, but there were no confirmation yet from additional indicators. Risk per trade 2.1 %. Initial SL set on 0.39 and initial PT was 1.2 (rrr = 1:3).

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